Association of stay-at-home orders and state-level rates of African American’s with COVID-19

Editor's Note

A state’s stay-at-home orders (SAHOs) were associated with reductions in COVID-19 cases and fatality rates between March and May 2020, and a state’s number of African Americans was associated with more COVID-19 cases and fatalities in this study from the University of Alabama at Birmingham.

Of 3,023 pooled state- and day-level observations, the mean cumulative positive case rate was about 103 cases per 100,000 state population, and the mean subsequent cumulative fatality rate was approximately 13 deaths per 100,000. Estimation analysis found that cumulative rates would have been more than 200% higher and fatality rates some 22% higher without SAHOs.

A higher proportion of African Americans in a state’s population was associated with higher case rates and fatality rates. A 1% increase in a state’s African American population was associated with a mean of 4.6% higher cumulative cases and 7.0% higher fatalities.

These findings could help policy makers address the continued COVID-19 pandemic in the US, the researchers say.