Johns Hopkins professor Marty Makary, MD, predicts herd immunity by April

Editor's Note

In a February 18 Wall Street Journal op-ed, Marty Makary, MD, a surgeon and a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, predicts that the US will have herd immunity to COVID-19 by April. He notes that COVID-19 cases have dropped 77% in 6 weeks, which is much faster than experts predicted.

Dr Makary says cases are plummeting in large part because of natural immunity in those who have been previously infected, which he estimates at 55%, plus the 15% of the population who have already been vaccinated.

He notes that some medical experts privately agree with him but suggest “not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine.”

Dr Makary says, “scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth.” He advises encouraging everyone to get vaccinated and “to reopen schools and society to limit the damage caused by closures and prolonged isolation.”