Localized nurse shortages to persist amid nationwide surplus, analysis predicts

Editor's Note

A new report by Mercer projects a national surplus of 30,000 nurses by 2028, but significant shortages will remain in some states and rural areas where healthcare access is already limited, according to a September 15 report in MedCity News. 

For example, New York is projected to face a shortage of 12,000 nurses by 2028, while Tennessee and New Jersey will each see a deficit of 3,000, the article notes. Conversely, states like Texas and California are expected to have a surplus of 8,000 and 6,000 nurses, respectively. Authors say these projections point to a highly uneven distribution of nursing labor across the U.S., driven in part by the migration of populations and the availability of nursing education programs.

Rural areas will also continue to struggle with shortages amid the predicted national nurse surplus, MedCity News reports. In states like Michigan and Colorado, there is already a notable imbalance, with metro areas like Detroit and Denver showing a healthy nursing workforce while rural regions suffer from insufficient staff. Article sources advise rural healthcare providers are recommended to consider additional measures to recruit and retain nurses, such as implementing high school transition programs to develop local talent.

Mercer’s report follows a period of instability in the nursing workforce caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw approximately 100,000 nurses leaving the profession due to burnout, stress, and retirement, MedCity News reports. While fewer nurses are now leaving the workforce, the shortages in specific regions and rural areas remain concerning.

According to the article, potential mitigating efforts by healthcare providers include expanding recruitment efforts by tapping into labor pools from states with surpluses, reduce the nonclinical tasks nurses are responsible for, and create supportive work environments to improve retention. The report also highlights the importance of developing internal nursing talent through training and certification programs, especially in areas where the nursing shortage is most acute.