Low-cost blood test predicts cardiovascular event risk

Editor's Note

A low-cost blood test for troponin, a protein released during heart muscle damage, significantly improves long-term risk prediction for heart attacks and strokes—especially in patients with intermediate cardiovascular risk, according to an April 7 report from News-Medical.Net. The findings, based on a large-scale international study led by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, suggest that adding high-sensitivity troponin testing to conventional screening tools could refine clinical decision-making and help prevent serious cardiovascular events.

As detailed in the article, troponin testing is already used to diagnose acute heart attacks in hospitals, but this study evaluated its value in preventive care. Researchers analyzed anonymized data from over 62,000 people across 15 cohort studies in Europe, North America, and Australia. Participants had troponin levels measured alongside traditional risk factors such as age, blood pressure, cholesterol, diabetes, and smoking history. They were then tracked for about 10 years to observe cardiovascular outcomes.

The study modeled the effect of incorporating troponin testing into current risk prediction algorithms. The results showed that troponin levels enhanced prediction accuracy up to fourfold compared to models using cholesterol data alone. According to the article, the test was particularly effective in the 35% of individuals classified as having intermediate cardiovascular risk—those with a 2.5% to 15% chance of a major event within 10 years—where clinical decisions about preventive treatment are often unclear.

Notably, the model found that adding troponin data could reclassify up to 8% of intermediate-risk patients into a high-risk category, potentially enabling early intervention with statins or other therapies, News-Medical.Net reports. Researchers estimate that for every 500 people tested in this risk group, one heart attack or stroke could be prevented. At a cost of £5 (about $6), troponin testing would be considered affordable within the UK’s NHS and is on par with cholesterol screening.

Experts cited in the article, including lead author Professor Anoop Shah, emphasized that even low troponin levels within the normal range offer meaningful information about ongoing heart muscle damage. Coauthor Dr. Spencer Keene noted the test’s particular value in older adults and those with diabetes. Authors also acknowledged that further research is needed to assess cost-effectiveness across different healthcare settings, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

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