New report predicts surge in ASC volume over next decade

Editor's Note

New findings from health consultant Sg2’s 2024 Impact of Change report projects a 21% increase in ambulatory surgery center (ASC) volume, to reach 44 million by 2034, ASC Focus July 8 reports. An aging population, better diagnostics, and epidemiological factors are driving this demand, Tori Richie, senior consulting director of intelligence at Sg2 told the outlet.

Outpatient volume is expected to rise 17% to 5.82 billion, while hospital outpatient department (HOPD) volume will increase 13% to 723 million. The shift to ASCs is observed as being influenced by clinical innovation, competition, payer pressures, physician alignment trends, and consumer preferences.

The report also predicts a 3% increase in inpatient utilization to 31 million annual discharges, and a 9% rise in inpatient days to 170 million. Medical discharges are expected to grow faster than surgical discharges due to the aging, comorbid patient population, which will most likely lead to emergency department bottlenecks.

Additional findings include:

• Behavioral health: inpatient discharges and outpatient volumes will grow 8% and 26%, respectively
• Bariatric surgery: inpatient bariatric volumes will decline by 15%, while outpatient volumes will rise by 13%
• Virtual care: 23% of evaluation and management visits will be virtual by 2034, especially for chronic diseases
• Home health: Enabled by virtual capabilities, home health is expected to grow 22%.

Richie said clinical care changes and financial incentives are making ASCs more attractive for certain surgical services, leading to cost reductions and better access to care. Orthopedics, spine, and gastroenterology are the three specialties with significant growth potential in ASCs. Private equity investments and physician equity models are also driving this shift, with financial benefits for both payers and consumers.

Bill Prentice, CEO of ASCA, noted that while the report highlights the growing trend towards ASCs, Medicare’s inadequate reimbursement rates need to be addressed to support this transition.