Simulation to predict hospital capacity needs during COVID-19 pandemic

Editor's Note

This study from the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, finds that a susceptible, infected, removed (SIR) epidemic model can be adapted to local population characteristics to inform hospital planning for epidemic-related surges in hospital capacity.

Using COVID-19 patients only, the SIR model estimated that it would be 31 to 53 days before demand exceeded existing hospital capacity. In best- and worst-case scenarios of surges of COVID-19 patients, the needed total capacity for hospital beds would reach 3,131 to 12,650 across the three-hospital academic health system studied, including 338 to 1,608 ICU beds and 118 to 599 ventilators.

Publicly available and designed for hospital operations leaders, this tool can inform preparation for capacity during early days of a pandemic, the authors say.